Successful strategies in times of crisis. Strategic planning: crisis of ideology Analysis of strategic alternatives of an enterprise in a crisis

STRATEGIC PLANNING AT THE ENTERPRISE DURING THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

K. E. Schesnyak,

doctoral student of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (Moscow),

PhD in Economics

A. Ya. Bystryakov,

Head of the Department of Finance and Credit, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (Moscow), Doctor of Economics [email protected]

The article discusses the specifics of strategic planning at an enterprise in a financial and economic crisis, examines the stages of strategic planning, and proposes the main indicator for a strategic goal in a crisis - the value of the company.

Key words: strategic toning, financial and economic crisis, enterprise management.

UDC 338; BBK 65.050

Problems in the global financial system arose against the background of the uncontrolled pumping of the world economic system with banknotes not backed by commodity production, issued primarily by the United States, as well as Japan and the EU, which caused the spread of negative real lending rates around the world. A failure in the financial system caused a drop in prices for basic resources - oil, metal, products of the chemical industry, agriculture, etc.

Now almost all countries of the world are in a difficult situation, and in the context of globalization, world problems will constantly influence the course of Russian events, aggravated by specific internal problems.

At the same time, in a crisis, there are additional opportunities for obtaining high incomes from investing in real estate. As a result of the impact of the economic crisis, the cost of housing in Russia and many other countries has dropped significantly. At the same time, this drop in prices in many cases is not related to the influence of fundamental factors that determine the demand for real estate in the long term, which makes it possible to find undervalued assets with significant upside potential. At the same time, the return on investment in such assets can significantly exceed the average values ​​during periods of stable economic growth.

Thus, the key conditions for effective investment in a crisis are the presence of strongly

GDP, in % to the same period of the previous year Inflation Fig.1. Dynamics of GDP and inflation in Russia in 2007-2008

Source: Rosstat

102007 202007 302007 402007 102008 202008 302008 402008

a depreciating asset with significant growth potential, as well as choosing the best moment to acquire it at the lowest price.

During the global financial crisis in Russia, there is a slowdown in economic growth. Figure 1 shows the dynamics of the gross domestic product and inflation in Russia in 2007-2008.

As can be seen from fig. 1, since the 1st quarter of 2008, Russia has seen a slowdown in GDP growth - from 9.5% to 6.2%. Inflation in Russia grew throughout 2007 and early 2008. In the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, the rate of price growth slowed down somewhat, but remains at a fairly high level.

As you know, market conditions depend on many macroeconomic factors. The market poses the problems of survival for business entities, ensuring the continuity of their growth. The solution to these problems related to the creation and implementation of the company's competitive advantages is based on the development and implementation of appropriate strategies.

Various factors influence the nature of the market recovery after crises. In addition to the general state of the economy (GDP dynamics, inflation, unemployment), such indicators as household incomes, mortgage interest rates, etc. are of significant importance.

Thus, during a crisis, strategic planning creates the conditions for the emergence of a number of important

predetermining conditions for companies, provides a basis for decision making. A clear statement of the company's goals helps to determine the most appropriate ways to achieve them and helps to reduce risk. By making informed planning decisions, the company reduces the risk of misdirection due to erroneous or unreliable information about the external situation. Strategic planning defines the organization's strategic goals. The definition and implementation of strategies belongs to the category of complex and time-consuming management tasks that require not only a change in the existing stereotypes of management, but also a certain preparedness of managers who make decisions on the company's future development.

Strategic planning is a process of practical activity of management subjects. It allows avoiding major errors in assessing possible alternatives to market dynamics, the behavior of competitors and partners in the domestic and foreign markets. All this is formalized into a targeted medium-term directive document containing a system of measures agreed upon in terms of time, resources and executors that ensure the achievement of the set program. The influence of factors of instability of the macro environment, causing constant changes in the market situation, determines the continuous adjustment and refinement of the program.

It must be emphasized that strategic planning should be based on strategic milestones that need to be achieved in the future, and proceed from the premise that the main threats are outside the company, and the company can anticipate dangers and threats before undesirable events occur and minimize losses if they cannot be prevented. The strategic planning system does not assume that the future must certainly be better than the past, therefore, in strategic planning, an important place is given to the analysis of the organization's prospects, which allows you to identify trends, dangers, opportunities that can change existing trends.

The vector of progressive development of the company should be directed to strategic objectives in order to follow the targets, and ensure the necessary position of the company in the market with timely adjustments. In this regard, operational planning is a continuation and concretization of strategic planning.

The two main factors that determine the specifics of the strategy are:

1) the conditions of the industry and competition, which are a reflection of the environment:

2) the internal situation and competitive position of the company.

Industry and competition analysis broadly covers the entire environment or macro-environment of the company, while situation analysis considers the immediate sphere of existence, or the micro-environment of the company.

Managers must have a keen sense of the strategic aspects of the company's macro and micro environment in order to have a strategic vision, be able to define the main goals and form a successful strategy. Lack of such understanding greatly increases the likelihood of developing a strategic plan that is inappropriate for the situation, does not create prospects for gaining competitive advantage, and most likely does not improve the company's performance.

When analyzing the position of a company, you should focus on five questions:

1. How well is the current strategy working?

2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the company, what are the opportunities for it and what are the dangers?

3. Are the company's costs and prices competitive?

4. Is the company's competitive position strong?

5. What are the strategic challenges facing the company?

Strategy evaluation should be carried out, on the one hand,

on the basis of qualitative characteristics (completeness, internal consistency, relevance to the situation), on the other hand, the best evidence of the effectiveness of the company's strategy follows from the study of financial performance indicators, as well as indicators characterizing the results of the strategy implementation. In particular, indicators of the company's activity can be:

Place of the company in the industry in terms of its market share:

Change in the company's profitability, comparison with competitors:

Trends in the company's net profit and return on investment:

The most important stage in the analysis of the company's situation is the systematic assessment of the strength of its competitive position in comparison with the position of its closest competitors. As a rule, the competitiveness of a company should be based on its strengths and on the support of those areas in which the company is competitively vulnerable. In addition, those areas in which the strength of the company is opposed by the weakness of competitors are the best potential direction of activity.

The main components of strategic planning: defining the mission of the organization. This process consists in establishing the meaning of the existence of the company, its purpose, role and place in a market economy. It characterizes the direction in business that firms are guided by based on market needs, the nature of consumers, product features and the presence of competitive advantages.

Formulation of goals and objectives. To describe the nature and level of business claims inherent in a particular type of business, the terms - goals - and<задачи>\ Goals and objectives involve determining the level of customer service. They determine the motivation of people working in the firm. The target picture should have at least four types of targets: Quantitative targets: Qualitative targets: Strategic targets: Tactical targets, etc. Goals for the lower levels of the firm are seen as objectives.

Analysis and assessment of the external and internal environment. Environmental analysis is usually considered the initial process of strategic management, as it provides the basis both for defining the mission and goals of the firm and for developing a strategy of behavior that allows the firm to fulfill its mission and achieve its goals.

One of the key roles of any management is to maintain a balance in the interaction of the organization with the environment. Each organization is involved in the following processes: obtaining resources from the external environment (input): turning resources into a product (transformation): transferring the product to the external environment (output). Management is designed to provide a balance of input and output. As soon as this balance is disturbed in an organization, it embarks on the path of dying. The modern market has dramatically increased the importance of the exit process in maintaining this balance. This is precisely reflected in the fact that the first block in the structure of strategic management is the block of environmental analysis.

Analysis of the environment involves the study of its three components: the macro environment: the immediate environment: the internal environment of the organization.

The analysis of the external environment (macro- and immediate environment) is aimed at finding out what the company can count on if it successfully conducts work, and what complications can await it if it fails to avert negative attacks in time, which can give her the environment. The analysis of the macro environment includes the study of the influence of the economy, legal regulation and management, political processes, the natural environment and resources, the social and cultural components of society, the scientific, technical and technological development of society, infrastructure, etc.

The immediate environment is analyzed according to the following main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors, labor market. An analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in a competitive struggle in the process of achieving its goals. An analysis of the internal environment also makes it possible to better understand the goals of the organization, to more correctly formulate the mission, that is, to determine the meaning and direction of the company. It is extremely important to always remember that the organization not only produces products for the environment, but also provides an opportunity for its members to exist, giving them work, providing them with the opportunity to participate in profits, providing them with social guarantees, etc.

The internal environment is analyzed in the following areas: personnel potential: organization of management: finances: marketing: organizational structure, etc.

Development and analysis of strategic alternatives, choice of strategy. Strategy development is carried out at the highest level

management. At this stage of decision-making, it is necessary to evaluate alternative ways for the firm to operate and choose the best options to achieve its goals. The firm faces four main strategic alternatives: limited growth, growth, reduced growth, and a combination of these strategies. Limited growth is followed by most organizations in developed countries. Leaders are less likely to choose a downsizing strategy. In it, the level of goals pursued is set below that achieved in the past. For many firms, downsizing can mean a path to rationalization and reorientation of operations. Strategic choices are influenced by a variety of factors: risk (a factor in the life of the firm): knowledge of past strategies; reaction of equity holders, which often limit management's flexibility in choosing a strategy; time factor, depending on the choice of the right moment. Decision-making on strategic issues can be carried out in different directions: ¿bottom-up-, ¿top-down-, in the interaction of the two above-mentioned directions (the strategy is developed in the process of interaction between top management, planning service and operational units). Forming the strategy of the company as a whole is becoming increasingly important. This concerns the priority of the problems to be solved, the definition of the structure of the firm, the validity of capital investments, the coordination and integration of strategies.

Thus, the main advantage of strategic planning is the greater degree of validity of planned indicators, the greater likelihood of the planned scenarios for the development of events.

The current pace of change in the economy is so high that strategic planning seems to be the only way to formally predict future problems and opportunities. It provides the top management of the company with the means to create a plan for the long term, provides a basis for decision-making, helps reduce risk in decision-making, ensures the integration of the goals and objectives of all structural divisions and performers of the company.

However, strategic planning does not and cannot, by virtue of its essence, give a detailed description of the picture of the future. What it can give is a qualitative description of the state to which the company should strive in the future, what position it can and should take in the market and in business in order to answer the main question - will the company survive or not in the competition: strategic planning does not have a clear algorithm for the preparation and implementation of the plan. His descriptive theory boils down to a particular philosophy or ideology of doing business. Therefore, specific tools largely depend on the personal qualities of a particular manager, and in general, strategic planning is a symbiosis of intuition and art of top management, the manager's ability to lead the company to strategic goals.

Strategic plans must be designed to not only remain consistent over long periods of time, but also be flexible enough to be modified and refocused as needed. The overall strategic plan should be seen as a program that guides the firm's activities over an extended period of time, recognizing that a conflicting and ever-changing business and social environment makes constant adjustments inevitable.

Correction of the strategic plan is necessary only in cases of a significant revision of the company's development goals or an unpredictable change, primarily in external conditions, as a result of which the originally set development goals may disorientate management.

A certain alternative to adjusting the strategic plan is to reduce the planning horizon. Moreover, this is justified not only in the case of a high probability of an unpredictable change in external conditions, but also in general for low-performing or financially unstable companies. As practice shows, companies that are doing well, slightly change the rules of decision-making and the decisions themselves within one or another planning horizon. At the same time, companies with low profitability are more inclined to look for new areas of development, which inevitably leads to a revision of previously adopted plans and tasks.

Thus, the lower the profitability of the company and the more difficult its financial position, the shorter the planning horizon should be or the more frequently adjustments should be made to previously approved strategic plans.

Given that the accuracy of the forecast decreases as its time interval expands, with the expansion of the planning horizon, the probability of 100% hitting the approved targets decreases. Management can be required to fully implement (or at least implement with minimal deviations) operational plans, but with annual (and even more so with long-term) planning, the deviation of actual results from benchmarks becomes inevitable. Under such conditions, it is difficult to correctly assess the compliance of the actual results obtained with the goals that were set for the company when approving the strategic plan. Therefore, a necessary condition for a comprehensive assessment of the company's performance is the correct determination of the composition of benchmarks and standards for the planning period.

The task is to single out among the many indicators (positions, articles) the main ones, the implementation of which should be mandatory for management. The higher the financial results of the company, the more importance should be given to planning and control, the more benchmarks should be used.

We propose to consider the growth of the company's value as the main task facing its management. In this case, strategic planning should include, firstly, tasks to increase the value for the planning period; secondly, planned indicators for the main factors (directions) that affect the growth of the company's value.

As for the increase in the value of the company for the planned period, the formulation of this problem (and the corresponding calculation) should be based on the requirements for return on invested capital presented by the owners. In this case, the invested capital is understood as the cost of capital at the beginning of the planning period, and the return is calculated as the sum of capitalization growth and income received during the planning period. As a rule, the establishment of certain indicators of return on capital reflects both the subjective expectations of investors and objective comparisons with the return on other financial instruments (including the risk component).

Achieving the set goal of capitalization growth depends on a number of both economic and non-economic (political, etc.) factors. Accordingly, in order to achieve the planned growth in the company's value, planned targets are set for the main indicators that affect its value and depend on its management (taking into account the predicted impact of non-economic factors). As a rule, such indicators include growth in business volume (revenue, investments, etc.), return on capital, as well as indicators of the maximum level of debt, expenses, etc.

Literature

1. Ansoff I. Strategic management. - M.: Economics, 1995.

2. Keynes D.M. General theory of employment of interest and money. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://www.gumfak.ru/econom_html/keins/keins06. shtml

3. Korotkov E., Kuzmina E. Genesis of management// Problems of theory and practice of management. - 2006. - No. 1.

4. Semelkin V.Yu. Planning as a factor in the effective functioning of an enterprise // Economics and Management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).

5. Syrbu A.N. Analysis of the position of the company in the formation of strategy // Economics and management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).

6. Economic theory. Electronic textbook. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://el.tfi.uz/ru/et/gl14.html

Collection output:

STRATEGIC PLANNING METHODS IN A CRISIS

Gavrilyuk Sergey Alekseevich

postgraduate student, St. Petersburg State University of Engineering and Economics (IZHECON),

St. Petersburg

The threat of another global economic crisis is relevant today. One way or another, the Russian economy will be seriously affected by the economic crisis, so the management of any enterprise needs a list of measures and methods of anti-crisis management to respond to emerging crisis situations in companies that are somehow related to the crisis. A special role in anti-crisis management is played by the ability to competently plan a combination of strategic and tactical elements. This article highlights the main methods of strategic planning in a crisis period.

Strategic planning - an enterprise management system based on a mechanism for coordinating current decisions - tactical and operational - with strategic ones, as well as a mechanism for adjusting and monitoring the implementation of a strategy. The process of choosing the goals of the organization and ways to achieve them. Strategic planning provides the basis for all management decisions.

The main goal of strategic planning at the enterprise is to collect and analyze information about the final or intermediate results, determine the changes that have taken place and the current state of the enterprise, evaluate the benefits and costs, establish areas for future improvement and development of the enterprise, and then use these data to solve the following problems:

Table 1.

Goals of strategic planning.

Goals	Characteristic
Resource allocation	This process involves the allocation of limited organizational resources such as funds, scarce managerial talent and technological expertise.
Adaptation to the external environment	Adaptation should be interpreted in the broadest sense of the word. It covers all actions of a strategic nature that improve the company's relationship with its environment. Companies need to adapt to both external opportunities and hazards, identify appropriate options, and ensure that strategy is effectively adapted to the environment. The strategic planning of successful companies deals with the creation of new opportunities through the development of better production systems, through interaction with government and society at large, and so on.
Internal coordination	It involves coordinating strategic activities to map the firm's strengths and weaknesses in order to achieve effective integration of internal operations. Ensuring efficient internal operations in organizations, large or small, is an integral part of management activities.
Awareness of organizational strategies	This activity involves the implementation of a systematic development of the thinking of managers by forming an organization that can learn from past strategic decisions. The ability to learn from experience enables an organization to properly adjust its strategic direction and improve professionalism in strategic management. The role of the senior manager is more than simply initiating the strategic planning process, it is also involved in implementing, integrating and evaluating this process.

Environmental analysis is the process by which strategic planners control factors external to the enterprise in order to identify opportunities and threats for the firm. Analysis of the external environment helps to obtain important results. It gives the organization time to anticipate opportunities, time to plan for possible threats, and time to develop strategies that can turn past threats into any profitable opportunity.

Figure 1. Threats and opportunities faced by an enterprise can usually be divided into seven areas.

Analysis of the macro environment includes the study of the impact of the economy, legal regulation and management, political processes, natural environment and resources, social and cultural components of society, scientific, technical and technological development of society, infrastructure, etc. The immediate environment is analyzed by the following main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors, labor market.

An analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in a competitive struggle in the process of achieving its goals. An analysis of the internal environment also makes it possible to better understand the goals of the organization, to more correctly formulate the mission, that is, to determine the meaning and direction of the company. The internal environment is analyzed in the following areas:

• personnel of the company, their potential, qualifications, interests, etc.;
• management organization;
• production, including organizational, operational and technical and technological characteristics and research and development;
• company finances;
• marketing;
• organizational culture.

Today, most company leaders consider strategic planning as the most important tool for managing a company in times of crisis. Moreover, strategic planning should be not only operational, but also medium-term. However, the concept of medium-term in times of crisis is changing. In a crisis situation, the role of the annual plan in the management of the company changes. First of all, the plan becomes not so much a set of financial indicators as an indication of action depending on the implementation of various risk factors. In a crisis, it is necessary to set the direction of development and identify the priorities of the company, while leaving freedom in terms of a specific interpretation. This will allow strategic planning to maintain a single direction of movement, leaving the possibility of choosing the paths along which the company will develop. In a crisis, the importance of the coordinating function of strategic planning, which ensures the coherence of anti-crisis actions of all departments of the company, increases.

Strategic planning should allow making operational decisions in response to current changes in the external environment. The management of the company should pay maximum attention to the effective exchange of information between the department and provide feedback to all levels of management. The key features of the approach to strategic planning during the crisis period are the reduction in detail, the increase in flexibility and efficiency. The detail of the development of the medium-term plan can be reduced to indicative planning. The plan should provide exactly the level of detail that allows management to manage the enterprise. In a crisis, as part of strategic planning, such a tool as rolling planning is often used. A rolling plan is developed for three months and revised approximately 2-3 times a month. It is important to remember that with significant variability and flexibility in medium-term and operational plans, the strategic plans of the company should change only in special cases. This means that while the strategic goals and mission remain unchanged, operational plans must fully comply with the realities of the business environment.

There are 3 approaches to strategic planning in a crisis:

Table 2.

Strategic planning approaches in a crisis.

An approach	Characteristic
From "living wage"	It is actively used by companies from the industries most affected by the crisis or companies from relatively prosperous industries that entered the crisis with a significant debt burden. With this approach, the key task is to maintain the liquidity of the company.
From scenarios for the development of the external environment	It is critically important for companies whose business is significantly dependent on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and government decisions. First of all, this applies to importers and exporters, monopoly companies. Strategic planning is developed on the basis of market analysis, forecasts of the economic situation, government decisions by industry. The key indicators that are taken into account when planning are indicators such as the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, Gazprom's investment program, etc.
From targets	It is typical for companies whose impact of the crisis on their business is insignificant. As a rule, when planning, they start from the same indicators as in the pre-crisis period.

Undoubtedly, scenario planning is a key tool for strategic planning in conditions of high uncertainty. There are 5 main stages of scenario planning in a company:

Table 3

Stages of scenario planning at the enterprise.

Stages	Characteristic
1. Identification of key environmental factors affecting the company	It is very important to approach individually the issue of identifying influencing factors for each specific company. Do not get carried away with excessive analysis and forecasting of external macroeconomic factors, which, on the one hand, may not be so significant for the company, and on the other hand, often cannot be accurately predicted even by specialized expert structures. The number of really influencing factors may be small.
2. Formulation of scenarios at a qualitative level	In scenario forecasting, it is very important to formulate qualitatively different scenarios for the development of events. Often companies limit themselves to drawing up pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios, which is wrong, because. are essentially mathematical variations of the same scenario. In addition, it is often too difficult to make adequate quantitative forecasts, while it is more realistic to determine the main possible trends and directions of development. A characteristic feature of the current crisis is predominantly pessimistic business forecasts. Often this is justified. However, situations often appear when no one even tries to look for positive opportunities and non-banal anti-crisis ideas.
3. Digitization of scenarios	Forecast of the development of factors and forecast of the development of markets. The construction of mathematical forecasting models, an enlarged digitization of scenarios is needed, because allows you to move on to the development of company plans, which are always in the “figure”.
4. Identification of risks and opportunities for the company in each scenario.	At this stage, the basic prerequisites for formulating response measures are laid.
5. Identification of critical events and determination of control points for the development of scenarios.	At this stage, indicators of two types are determined: 1) Events in the external environment, the occurrence of which will be an indicator of a change in scenarios. 2) Indicators by which the development of scenarios is regularly monitored. For example, two sets of control digits are built: for the basic option (the "bottom" in the industry has been reached) and the very hard option. The second option (option “g”) is being worked out in the context of activities in parallel with the creation of budgets for the base option. It is assumed that when the external environment deteriorates, the company synchronously switches to option "g" and each manager keeps in mind a set of necessary measures to make this transition.

World practice shows that strategic planning in a crisis involves planning long before a crisis at the enterprise. The absence of such a methodology and such a plan developed "before" diverts resources to planning "during the time" and causes the company to play up, deceive employees, society, investors in the market, squirm in convulsive attempts to return to a stable state.

Bibliography:

1. Anti-crisis management - Textbook - Korotkova E.M. - 2003 - c. 160-166.
2. Building a personnel management system in a long crisis, Journal "Personnel Management" N23 2008.
3. PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT Lecture notes Sukharev N.O. Penza, 2002. - p. 15-16

Crisis Planning

The threat of another global economic crisis is relevant today. One way or another, the Russian economy will be seriously affected by the economic crisis, so the management of any enterprise needs a list of measures and methods of anti-crisis management to respond to emerging crisis situations in companies that are somehow related to the crisis. A special role in anti-crisis management is played by the ability to manage the personnel of an enterprise during this period. This article highlights the main methods of personnel management in a crisis period.

Human resource management - is a strategy and a coherent approach to the management of the most valuable assets of the enterprise - the people working for the enterprise with their individual or collective contribution to the achievement of the organization's goals. The terms "human resource management" and "human resources" in a broad sense replace the term "human management" as a description of the processes of personnel management in an enterprise.

Human resources management is understood as the whole set of organizational measures aimed at the optimal formation of personnel (labor collective) and the full use of its capabilities and abilities in the production process. This management is a multi-stage process, including the following management actions:

• planning the necessary labor resources to achieve the goals of the enterprise;
• recruitment and creation of a reserve of personal candidates;
• selection of the best candidates for job replacement from the reserve created during the recruitment process;
• · Determining wages and benefits that reflect the situation on the labor market and the capabilities of the enterprise, as well as its interest in hiring specific candidates to fill vacancies;
• professional orientation and adaptation of newly hired personnel;
• training of personnel in labor skills and improvement of their qualifications for the effective performance of work;
• Evaluation of labor activity of personnel;
• • movement of personnel, including promotion and demotion, transfer to another job and dismissal;
• · training of management personnel for enterprise management at all levels of the organizational and production hierarchy.

In general, human resources management includes the following areas of work: the formation and development of labor resources, as well as the stimulation and improvement of the quality of the working life of personnel. The planning of the resources necessary to achieve the goals of the enterprise is carried out by applying certain procedures for the implementation of this process to complete the approved staffing levels. Assessment of available resources is the basis for organizing work on personnel management. In the evaluation process, management should determine the actual availability of personnel, their sufficiency and quality to achieve the objectives of the enterprise. The results of such an assessment make it possible to ensure the forecasting of future needs, which is carried out separately for short-term and long-term goals (plans) of the enterprise. Particular attention should be paid to identifying categories of personnel, the need for which should increase with a limited supply in the labor market. A general need for personnel is also predicted with a differentiation of workers in certain specialties. For the qualitative formation of labor resources, management must know in detail the tasks of a particular job and its characteristics that determine the requirements for specific personnel for organizing (replacing) jobs.

Top and middle managers responsible for human resources of a company certainly face challenges in managing personnel during business crises and economic downturns. The staff is the most valuable capital of the company, and at the same time it is the largest item of its expenses, not only in terms of financial estimates, but also in terms of performance, risks and reputation. The reduction in human resources costs is in most cases misunderstood as a reduction in headcount. But in world practice, there are many other available ways to reduce personnel costs that allow companies to improve the level of HR management in a crisis. "The main purpose of this section will be to show all the possibilities of how, in a crisis, enterprises should adjust their personnel management strategies, applying more flexible management measures, thereby avoiding increased risks of reducing the level of production in the enterprise" .

During the economic crisis, companies are forced to reduce operating costs, including those for the personnel of the enterprise. Reducing the cost of human resources involves reducing the cost of wages, training courses, benefits, insurance and other items of expenditure. The traditional way to reduce costs is to lay off staff, however, the application of this practice leads to undesirable consequences in the form of:

• loss of company assets during the crisis
• Possible serious damage to the corporate culture of the enterprise
• Deterioration of structural communications
• can cause irreparable damage to the company's reputation (especially when it comes to large, city-forming companies)
• Creation of a tense working atmosphere in the enterprise.

Many companies are constantly looking for alternative methods to reduce human resource costs before moving on to layoffs:

human asset management costs

Techniques to Reduce Human Resource Costs

Alternative Methods	Characteristic
Suspension of an employment contract	Temporary workers, part-time workers, student interns and subcontractual workers are made redundant to keep permanent full-time workers employed. Specifically, the strategic application of this policy to provide full-time job security for full-time employees is referred to as the “work safety ring approach”. Under this approach, the layoff rate of full-time employees who work all day is deliberately kept low. In the event of a re-increase in demand for labor, it will re-fill the staff with temporary workers or freelancers. The advantage of this approach is that it guarantees some stability and security, at least for full-time employees.
Wage freeze	As one of the ways to reduce costs, when managers can forcefully freeze payments to staff, during which the level of salaries and wages does not increase. The pay freeze should be enforced across the board, a policy that could be justified by cutting overtime pay and also asking workers to use their vacations and days off. Unfortunately, this method can force the most valuable personnel of the enterprise to leave the company, as they may feel their stagnation in the career ladder.
Reducing working hours	Assumes a reduction in the number of working hours and, therefore, the number of hours for which the enterprise must pay its employees. Workers get the opportunity to receive voluntary, unpaid leave or they can be transferred to part-time work. In some cases, all employees are willing to cut their work hours as a last resort to save jobs.
Division of work	An enterprise can always use division of work, when possible, to reallocate one work function to two work functions, but on a part-time basis. The main problem with this method is to find two employees who are willing to share their working hours and wages. As a last resort, highly paid employees may be demoted to low-paying jobs.
Reduction of personnel development programs through their internships at the enterprise	During a crisis, companies tend not to recruit new staff through internships at the enterprise. Due to the fact that young specialists who are trained at the enterprise in most cases are free personnel who are not tied to a particular enterprise and do not share its difficulties. In addition, it is more important for enterprises to retain more experienced staff in crisis situations than to incur additional costs for internship programs.
Expansion of job responsibilities of employees	The company can guarantee its employees the preservation of jobs if employees are willing to work overtime and take on new job responsibilities when necessary.
Outsourcing and Offshoring	One of the most effective ways to reduce personnel costs. First of all, because the enterprise can get rid of the costs associated with the recruitment and management of personnel, and it can use the benefits of lower tax payments by manufacturing products in developing countries. Outsourcing can benefit an enterprise by finding an employee who is more qualified for more complex tasks (instead of having two workers for different tasks, an enterprise may have one employee to do two jobs). The main problems of the method are errors in choosing the location of new production sites, problems associated with the transfer of production. When using outsourcing, an enterprise may have difficulty adapting new "borrowed" employees.
Reducing the cost of staff training	The company may resort to the practice of reducing staff training programs. Also reduce the number of staff involved in these programs or distribute their work hours more efficiently. However, such measures in the long run can harm the enterprise.
career breaks	Instead of being fired, the enterprise may offer the employee the opportunity to take some time off from work to use it for personal purposes (continue training, for example). With a further guarantee of restoration in the future.

Bibliography

• 1. Vinokurov V. Organization of strategic management at the enterprise. M., Center for Economics and Marketing, 1996. 234 p.
• 2. Gradov A.N. The economic strategy of the firm. St. Petersburg, Spetsliterature, 1995. 87 p.
• 3. Goncharov V.I. Management: Textbook, - Minsk: Misanta, 2003. - 624 p.
• 4. Maslov E.V. Enterprise personnel management, - M .: UNITI, 2005.
• 5. Planning in a crisis Dmitry Sirotkin, Inna Zinina, ICF "ALT" Abbreviated version - Financial Director, No. 3, 2009 http://www.altrc.ru/? p=libr_card&item_id=863&group_id=6
• 6. "A handbook of human resource management practice" Michael Armstrong London; Philadelphia: Kogan Page, 2006.

The XIV All-Russian Forum "Strategic Planning in the Regions and Cities of Russia" took place in St. Petersburg. The main topics of the event were the reconfiguration of the strategic planning system in connection with the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ and the problem of resource support for strategies and their linkage with the budget process.

Strategies and Reality

Exactly one year ago, summing up the results of the 13th Forum of Strategists, we talked about the crisis faced by the ideology of strategic planning in the new economic and political conditions. The deepening economic recession against the backdrop of sanctions, as well as the collapse of the national currency, made previously adopted forecasts and strategies irrelevant. Moreover, the activities of authorities at all levels have practically lost their strategic "dimension". It can be stated that over the past year the level of uncertainty has not decreased at all. Experts speak of a general decrease in activity in the development of strategies, a further reduction in the real planning horizon. Obviously, strat-planning is going through hard times.

A certain illusion of progress is created by the work that began in connection with the adoption of Law No. 172‑FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”. The drafters of the law still hope that it will make it possible to implement the long-standing idea of ​​a clear hierarchy of federal, regional and local strategic documents linked by timeframes, tasks and indicators. However, this pyramid still lacks a key - upper - tier. Chief Economist at Vnesheconombank (and in the recent past - Deputy Minister of Economic Development, in charge of strategic planning) A. N. Klepach stated that the main strategic document of the country - the Concept of long-term development of the Russian Federation until 2020 - was already outdated by the time of its adoption, since this happened at the height of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. There is no need to talk about the relevance of the CRA-2020 in the realities of 2015 at all. According to the economist, this document still retains its significance as an exponent of certain strategic approaches, goals, as an “image of the desired tomorrow” (apparently, the same can be said about other unrealizable strategies: you can’t work on them, but at least they make us think about where we are going).

However, the relevance of this "image" also raises questions. As Klepach himself noted, it is not entirely clear to what extent the current operational decisions that the government is forced to make in a crisis (primarily spending cuts) have strategic implications. Do they mean that we no longer adhere to all previously identified strategic priorities (including, for example, those contained in the May decrees of the President of the Russian Federation)? “It is clear that plans now need to be adjusted. But the question is different: are we going to fulfill them in principle? Have we simply deviated and will return to the chosen trajectory in the future, or are we basically going the other way?” - this question was put by the chief economist of Vnesheconombank.

Prospects for Law No. 172-FZ

“After the previous crisis, many were under the illusion that, despite all the problems, the budget would still allow us to implement a variety of priorities. However, now the resources have become really scarce, and without a strategic planning system it will be impossible to properly distribute them, ”said the Secretary of State - Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation O. V. Fomichev. He acknowledged that in the past two or three years, long-term development goals have increasingly been sacrificed for short-term ones. “Within the framework of the current policy, we cease to focus on making decisions that would ensure our long-term development. The objective of the strategic planning law is to finally start building short-term policies based on long-term priorities,” the official stressed.

In its first year of operation, the law does not appear to have done much in this regard. So far, at the federal level, efforts in terms of stratification are focused more on the adoption of regulatory legal acts in the development of Law No. 172-FZ. Six government resolutions have already been adopted, nine more are to be adopted by the end of the year. According to Fomichev, a problem has emerged: although the law describes in detail the hierarchy of the strategic planning system, it does not provide for the adoption of an act that would regulate the procedures for developing the numerous documents provided for in it and thereby ensure their mutual coordination.

Fomichev said that his ministry has already begun preparations for the development of a strategy for 2030 - the main document of strategic planning in accordance with the law. A working group has been set up in the Russian Ministry of Economy, and there are even some preliminary versions of the concept of the strategy. Nevertheless, there is an instruction from the Government of the Russian Federation to approve the strategy no earlier than 2017. Probably, the government took into account both the general economic uncertainty and the need for a large-scale study of this document with the expert community.

President of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation V. N. Knyaginin gave a brief description of the full cycle of strategic planning in accordance with the new law. “First, we make forecasts, strategies emerge from the forecasts, based on the strategies, the main directions of the activities of the executive authorities are adopted, then state programs, and from them medium-term plans follow, which are fully based on the budget. The law requires us to voice problems, set goals, decompose them into tasks, tie resources to them and receive a system of indicators that can reflect the achievement or non-achievement of the goals,” the expert said.

According to Knyaginin, the hierarchy of strategic documents provided for by law is its most controversial and difficult innovation to implement. He refers to the general problems of the emerging system of strategic planning as weak forecasting, which, in theory, should be the starting point of any strategy, as well as incorrect formulation of goals. “Strategies should be focused on solving problems, and not on providing a certain amount of state and municipal services. So far, very often we receive “purchasing” strategies and budgets,” the expert noted. He also stressed that strategies can only work in principle if they are leadership strategies or backed by a team. Otherwise, they remain on paper.

Responding to Knyaginin's statement about the shortcomings of forecasting, Klepach explained that the difficulty for forecasts and strategies is the "suspended" nature of many previously made decisions. “Thanks to the mechanism of conditionally approved spending, up to a third of the federal budget is not distributed among departments, but remains at the disposal of the Russian Ministry of Finance, which allows it to respond to the economic situation. This is not possible in forecasting. Some decisions are immediately laid down there and their consequences are assessed,” the economist said. An example is the recent decision to index pensions by 4% instead of the planned 12%. “Not only the parameters of the budget depend on this, but also such indicators as the growth of real incomes of the population, the level of demand for 2015-2016,” he added.

Regional opinion

Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia do not deny that the practice of implementing the law on strategizing can be assessed not earlier than in a few years, when the full cycle of strategizing has passed. Nevertheless, the regions, when developing their strategies, are already trying to focus on the new law. So, according to the Minister of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan A. A. Zdunova, the law helped formalize the work on the regional strategy, properly structure it to ensure communication with state programs, and through them - with the operational level of decision-making. The strategy of Tatarstan provides for a separate section with a list of state programs. The strategy, as well as the plan for its implementation, has already been adopted, so the necessary changes are being made to state programs.

Having waited for the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ, the Tomsk Region also began to develop its strategic documents. In March 2015, a regional law on strat-planning was adopted, and in May, the regional development strategy until 2030 was approved. “We have come to understand that the strategy is more of an interdepartmental tool, especially a regional one. The first thing to be achieved is the coordination of all participants in the strat-planning process and the tools at their disposal. In our case, the coordination of industrialists and transport workers was of great importance, ”said the chairman of the committee for strategic planning and program-targeted management of the Department of Economics of the Tomsk Region E. A. Bugaeva. According to her, the regional strategy attempts to solve two problems: to implement the priorities of federal policy in the region and municipalities, and to link all the tools of ministries and departments and investment plans of large corporations in one document. As a problem, Bugaeva noted the lack of a mechanism for taking into account regional priorities at the federal level, as well as the “infrastructure” for identifying regional points of growth.

Resource problem

Perhaps the most painful issue for those involved in strategies in recent years has been the synchronization of strategic and budget planning processes and the resource provision of adopted documents. This problem, to put it mildly, is far from its solution. So, it turned out that we cannot adequately predict the amount of resources that we will have at our disposal in just a few years. As the former Minister of Finance of Russia recalled A. L. Kudrin, during the development of the CRA-2020, there were active disputes about what indicator of average annual GDP growth should be included in the strategy - 6% or 4%. As a result, the average GDP growth in 2008-2015 was about 1%. “This makes a huge difference in terms of the resources we can count on. Maybe even earlier they should have been redistributed in some other way, for example, focusing on reforms that would eventually allow for more serious growth,” Kudrin said.

So, on the one hand, in principle, Russia lacks strategies that are backed by resources. On the other hand, long-term budgeting itself is in better shape. State programs, viewed as a bridge between budgets and strategies, are also not entirely unrealistic - according to Kudrin, today they are formulated as if additional resources will appear from somewhere for their implementation.

According to the Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation A. L. Vedeva, the law on strategic planning has not actually come into force and the planning cycle in accordance with it will be launched only in 2017, after the development of the 2030 strategy. In his opinion, the strategy development process has slowed down due to the crisis. “The situation inclines everyone - both the expert community and the government - to develop short-term forecasts, not forecasts for 5-10 years. In the current conditions, it is difficult to plan on the principles of strategic management. With all the desire to keep the strategic direction of development, we must adapt to crisis processes and use operational planning tools,” Vedev said. According to him, now it is important to set new guidelines for the medium term, in accordance with which the development of long-term programs for the development of the country will proceed. At present, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia is developing a baseline (most likely) scenario; conservative, taking into account adverse external conditions to a greater extent; and target. The target scenario assumes the transition of the Russian economy to sustainable growth at a rate not lower than the world average, a decrease in inflation to the level of 4% and an increase in labor productivity by at least 5%. “The main concept of the target scenario is to increase the efficiency of the economy by stimulating investment demand by reducing current consumption,” Vedev emphasized.

Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia A. M. Lavrov believes that when planning budget resources, it is necessary to adhere to the base scenario, and when planning the activities of government bodies within the framework of state programs and strategies, the target one. This means that different variants of the forecast must simultaneously exist. At the same time, the achievement of the goals of strategies and state programs should be based primarily on regulatory instruments and only then on resources.

According to Lavrov, in Russia the transition to the program budget has so far taken place only formally. State programs were adopted mainly in 2012 and no longer correspond to anything: “On average, they are provided with funding by no more than 60-70 percent. Each budget cycle of the state program has to be squeezed into these budget constraints. We refuse some events, some we reduce,” Lavrov explained. Klepach called a profanation a situation in which state programs are essentially adjusted to an already adopted budget without changing their target indicators. According to Lavrov, the Russian Ministry of Finance proposes to re-approve state programs, but this requires a general strategy for socio-economic development: without it, it is difficult to choose priorities, formulate goals and objectives of state programs. The second necessary condition is an understanding of the amount of available resources. The function of their description should be fulfilled by the long-term budget forecast up to 2030. As the deputy minister emphasized, this forecast must necessarily provide for ceilings on the expenditures of state programs.

According to the director of the Institute for Public Finance Reform V. V. Klimanova, a combination of budget planning and long-term planning of socio-economic development is necessary, but there is an insurmountable theoretical contradiction between these two processes. “On the one hand, strategizing should be aimed at development, on the other hand, the financial body should at some point indicate the presence of budgetary constraints and restrain the setting of tasks that are not provided with a resource base. But, again, if ambitious goals are not set when drawing up strategies, then there will be no development. No matter how many structures we create, this contradiction will still remain,” the expert noted. According to his observations, so far very little attention has been paid to the problem of resource constraints in strategies at various levels, including in the new strategies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adopted in accordance with Law No. 172-FZ.

Klimanov also recalled that in 2013 the Russian Ministry of Finance had already made an unsuccessful attempt to set strategic financial guidelines with the help of spending ceilings for all state programs. If this cannot be done even now, then, according to the expert, the entire ideology of strategic planning will fail. The same will happen if the government does not abandon the one-year budget and continue to work on raising the horizons of budget planning.

It cannot be ruled out that in the new economic conditions the ideology of strategic planning is expected to be transformed, and the limited financial resources will lead to the abandonment of the hierarchical models that are familiar to Russia, more suitable for a planned economy and oriented towards distribution from top to bottom. The need to use more flexible approaches was also discussed at the Forum of Strategists. Thus, Klepach recalled that in Russia the idea of ​​strategic planning was born by regions and municipalities, their practice and desire to live not only for today, and suggested building a system from below. A similar opinion was expressed by the governor of the Tomsk region S. A. Zhvachkin. In his opinion, an attempt to build a vertical system of strategic planning breaks down on the economic diversity of Russian regions.

Strategic planning n n n This is the process of developing and maintaining a balance between the goals and capabilities of an organization in a changing market environment. It is aimed at adapting the organization's activities to constantly changing environmental conditions and at extracting benefits from new opportunities. The purpose of strategic planning is to determine the most promising areas of the organization's activities, ensuring its growth and prosperity.

Strategic management n n Strategic planning - taking into account and combining goals, external and internal factors Mission - purpose, social role in society Goal - the desired result of the action Vision - the state of the organization that can be achieved in the future

Strategic and long-term planning Differences n n Strategic planning Long-term planning is based on the assumption that it is impossible to predict the long-term with a sufficient degree of accuracy based on the assumption that current trends in the development of the business environment can be extrapolated to the future. trends n n Planned from the vision of what we want Planned from the current situation, what we can Tool for the formation of long-term competitive Advantages budgeting tool.

Historical aspect n n n 50's Long-term planning - from within 60's Strategic planning - from outside 70's Strategic management = planning + change 80's Strategic entrepreneurship - vision 90's Strategy maps - scorecards

Features n From the future to the present n From the external environment to the internal n Implementation in the process of creating a strategy n Creativity n Participation of all levels of the organization

STAGES IN DEVELOPING A STRATEGIC PLAN n 1. Mission of the organization What is our mission? Why was it created? n 2. Strengths and weaknesses What are our internal strengths and weaknesses? n n n 3. Assessment of the external environment. Analysis of opportunities and threats Which opportunities and threats are the most significant for us and why?

STAGES IN DEVELOPING A STRATEGIC PLAN n 4. Shaping the vision for the future n How would we like the organization to look like in the future? n 5. Determination of the goals and objectives of the organization's activities 4 groups of goals Financial, marketing, business processes, personnel n n n 6. Analysis of obstacles and causes What prevents us from moving towards the desired future and how to overcome these obstacles? 7. Strategies In what directions should we take action today to overcome these obstacles? Analysis of strategic alternatives. Choice of strategy. 8. Drawing up a strategic plan

Balanced Scorecard 1992 Robert Kaplan and David Norton n Financial goals (Goals, objectives, performance, incentives in the eyes of owners) n Marketing goals (relationships with the consumer, image, mission realization) n Business processes (what business operations should the company improve first queue) n Personnel. Learning and development (how a company should develop its ability to adapt to changing circumstances)

Indicators n Financial (profitability, growth rates, equity) n Marketing (time, quality, service level, price/cost) qualifications, retention of professionals, adaptation of newcomers, service training)

IBM Full attention to each employee Take the time to make the customer happy See everything through to the end

Motorola n n n Integrity Service to Society Highest Quality Services at Affordable Prices Continuous Self-Renewal Integrity, Ethics Respecting the Dignity of Every Employee Improving Customer Satisfaction

Boeing n n n Be at the forefront, be a pioneer Respond to global challenges and take risks Safety and quality of goods Integrity and ethical business "Eat, breathe, sleep with aviation!"

Walt Disney n n n Cynicism is unacceptable Fanatic attention to sequencing and detail Continuous progress through creativity, imagination and fantasy Fanatically honoring and protecting the magical image of Disney Bringing joy to millions

Risk assessment High probability and low impact - contingency plan High probability and high impact - prevent early Low probability and low impact - do nothing Low probability and high impact - ongoing monitoring, contingency plan